Rapid Assessment Tool Urban Heat Island Effect

The World Bank
TU Delft

Current climate change comes along with rising temperatures. According to the KNMI’14 climate scenarios (2014), the number of so-called ‘summer days’ (Tmax ≥ 25 °C) will increase from 25 a year to 50 ± 15 in 2085. In cities, the so-called Urban Heat Island effect can add another 7 degrees to this.

In order to quickly assess the effects of spatial planning in cities on the heat stress experienced by its civilians, Paul Koot investigates the use of Non-Parametric Bayesian Networks, in collaboration with TU Delft. This novel statistical model can help to obtain a rapid assessment tool to quantify the spatial influence of surfaces on temperature, taking into consideration the uncertainty of all variables involved. In this way a first estimate of the impact of mitigation measures could be made more easily and more quickly.

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