Rapid Assessment Tool Urban Heat Island Effect
- The World Bank
- TU Delft
Current climate change comes along with rising temperatures. According to the KNMI’14 climate scenarios (2014), the number of so-called ‘summer days’ (Tmax ≥ 25 °C) will increase from 25 a year to 50 ± 15 in 2085. In cities, the so-called Urban Heat Island effect can add another 7 degrees to this.
In order to quickly assess the effects of spatial planning in cities on the heat stress experienced by its civilians, Paul Koot investigates the use of Non-Parametric Bayesian Networks, in collaboration with TU Delft. This novel statistical model can help to obtain a rapid assessment tool to quantify the spatial influence of surfaces on temperature, taking into consideration the uncertainty of all variables involved. In this way a first estimate of the impact of mitigation measures could be made more easily and more quickly.